After a tough year for nearly all asset classes, will the statistical pre-Christmas rally occur? The headwinds driving markets are China and their Covid policy, central banks, inflation numbers along with a stubbornly tight labour market. Volatility remains high to comments around these areas and it is difficult to call any clear direction at the current time.
Looking ahead into next year, we have expectations for a more relaxed Covid policy in China combined with supportive government actions to hit the 5% expected growth target, better manufacturing data from Japan and the potential that the US or Canadian central banks hike rates by less than market expectations into next year (unlikely to change December). As previously stated, the terminal rate for US rates remains the key metric driving market direction over the next quarter.